A few days ago, it was announced that the star GJ 1214 has a planet orbiting it, dubbed GJ 1214b. The massively interestesting part is they were able to measure this planet’s diameter as it transited across its star, and measure its mass via its star’s wobble like you do. Anyway, using this they calculated the planet’s density, which is estimated to be around only 1800 kg/m^3.

For comparison, Earth is around 5500 kg/m^3, while water is about 1000 kg/m^3. In other words this planet is mostly made of liquid water! At least that’s the most likely answer. The next most likely liquids (like liquid carbon dioxide) boil at a much lower temperature than what the planet is estimated be at (between 250 – 550 degrees F).

Now, the more astute among may notice that the planet is also above the boiling point of water. The thing is, as pressure goes up, so does the boiling point (the reverse is also true, which is why at higher elevations the boiling point drops and it take longer to cook food). For example, at 100 atmospheres, the boiling point of water is around 520 degrees F. So it’s possible for there to be a huge global ocean, as long as a sufficiently dense atmosphere is also there. That sounds like a pretty big conjecture, but the density of the planet is known, meaning there must be some sort of atmosphere dense enough to hold it in. My bet is that its mostly water vapor (most astronomers are saying its likely hydrogen and helium, but at the same time there’s substantial loss to space due to its proximity to the star, and there’s really no way for the planet to make more hydrogen and helium to replenish it).

So, lets explore this world together! First, based on its density, scientists calculate that it composed of roughly 25% rock and 75% water. Obviously, the rock will be in the core since rock is denser than water and will sink towards the center. The planet’s diameter is estimated to be 34,000 km across, so its core, taking up about one-fourth the volume, would be around 21,000 kilomteters across. On top of that is water, an ocean 6500 km deep. That’s roughly 1000 times as deep as Earth’s oceans!

Now some interesting things happen when you consider how that all fits together. As I said before the atmosphere is likely composed of water vapor. Water vapor is a greenhouse gas, and will cause the temperature to rise, causing more water to evaporate, thus increasing the greenhouse effect. This will likely continue until some sort of equilibrium is reached, where the influx of heat from the star is the same as the amount radiated away. This might be beyond the point where water goes supercritical (that is,  the line between liquid and gas vanishes and they sort ‘blend into’ each other). That means that the water vapor atmosphere likely just gets denser and denser until it reaches the density of water, at which point it can’t compress anymore.

Even more interesting is what happens down in the depths of this massive ocean. There, the pressure become high enough that the water will become solid, making an exotic form of ice known as Ice VII. This is not like ordinary ice. This is hot ice, denser than water, and probably forms a layer around the rocky core.

In short, this planet most likely looks like a miniature Jovian planet, with water as the gas present instead of hydrogen.

So what about the most obvious question: if there water, what about life? I don’t know. With supercritical water I don’t think that organic structures could even form. But, if the atmosphere really is made of hydrogen (which isn’t a greehouse gas) the temperature would stay much lower, low enough for water to retain all its life-assisting properties. Anyway, here’s a nice graphic (I like graphics) to help illustrate what this planet is like:

Today, the GOP decided to require their members to conform to at least eight out of ten of the following ideals otherwise they’ll lose their backing. I decided to see how I stack up against the “ideal Republican”:

(1) We support smaller government, smaller national debt, lower deficits and lower taxes by opposing bills like Obama’s “stimulus” bill

Yes, I am all smaller government, lower taxes, and less power in the hands of the government. As the old adage goes: “He who governs best, governs least.”

(2) We support market-based health care reform and oppose Obama-style government run healthcare

Yes, while it would be great if we could figure out how to make sure to insure everyone, government-run anything tends to just be bloated, inefficient, and a drain on our society. It is the separation of the buyer (i.e. the patient) and the payer (i.e. the insurance company) that has caused health care costs to skyrocket (it’s the same reason my textbooks are so expensive. The professors choose the book, but we students have to pay for it). By eliminating this separation, it will force doctors and hospitals to economically compete, causing prices to go down.

(3) We support market-based energy reforms by opposing cap and trade legislation

Yes, I believe the free-market is the best way to transition us from oil-based to post-oil-based power. As cheap oil starts to run out, the price of oil goes up and other forms of energy become economically competitive, and will eventually take over. Although, I would like to see a lot more government investment in alternative energy so that it’s ready to take over when oil runs out.

(4) We support workers’ right to secret ballot by opposing card check

I actually had to look up what this was (even though I’m part of a worker’s union. Go figure), but I’m actually against it. It’s not that I’m against having a secret ballot for forming a union, but I do think that both paths (secret and open ballots) should be available.

(5) We support legal immigration and assimilation into American society by opposing amnesty for illegal immigrants

Yes, although I would like to see lower barriers for legal immigration.

(6) We support victory in Iraq and Afghanistan by supporting military-recommended troop surges

No, simply because “victory” is pretty much undefined. What is “victory” in Iraq, really? We ousted the Hussein and the Ba’ath Party six years ago. Was that “victory”? If so, what do you call everything since then? And in Afghanistan? Same deal. When you investigate why these people in the Middle East are becoming insurgents, you realize “victory” is impossible. The only options are retreat or stagnation.

(7) We support containment of Iran and North Korea, particularly effective action to eliminate their nuclear weapons threat

Yes, especially Iran. Although invading either is out of the question as it would likely just become another Iraq.

(8) We support retention of the Defense of Marriage Act

No. Government has no business messing with people’s personal lives. What I don’t understand is why the Republicans, ostensibly the party that wants limited government, would use it to force people to conform to their sense of dignity.

(9) We support protecting the lives of vulnerable persons by opposing health care rationing and denial of health care and government funding of abortion

Yes, except for the last part. Again, why do the Republicans want to control people’s behavior in this area*? Then again, maybe the government shouldn’t be funding abortion, but it should still be legal to get in private hospitals and clinics.

10) We support the right to keep and bear arms by opposing government restrictions on gun ownership

Yes. Again, the government doesn’t have the right to mess with what people can and can’t do with their own property, including guns. Of course, that doesn’t mean people shouldn’t have their guns taken away if they misuse them and shoot people. But that would be similar to tearing up someone’s driver’s license because they were a dangerous driver, something no one argues again.

So, I score a 6.5 out of 10 (counting number 9 as half). Close, but I guess I lose my right-wing funding. Oh wait, I don’t get funding anyway. D’oh! 

*Don’t answer, I do know why, and, honestly, if it could be shown that a fetus is a person, I’d be against abortion too.

Last year on the Other Blog I wrote a typical bashing of a horoscope that was about my birthday. Now, since it is my birthday again, I can look back and see how accurate it was (hint: not at all). I mean, in science you can go back and confirm theories as much as you like. So why not in astrology? (hint: because it’s bull$#@%)

I actually haven’t read it, so I’ll be interest to see what was predicted for me and everyone else whose birthday was November 10th. Anyway, let’s go through it:

     This year brings the perfect mix of whirling excitement and cozy comfort, as your personal life expands and settles in at different times of the year.

Yes, but everyone’s life does that every year. Unless you’re a hermit or something.

     You’ll make three important new friends before the new year begins.

Nope. In fact, I barely talk to any of the people listed in the old post anymore due to transfers and different scheduling.

     Your living situation becomes more accommodating in March.

Sort of, maybe. Again, my plans really didn’t pan out as I had expected. I’m really only getting caught up in the past couple months or so.

     Travels thrill you in August.

In August I went nowhere. Nowhere with girls, anyway.

     Gemini and Libra adore you.

Again, I still know no one that were born in the relevant months. I did get back together with my ex-girlfriend, but she’s an Aquarius. Actually, maybe I’m mistaken in thinking these’s are meant to be star signs. Gemini means twins and Libra means a balance. Hmmm…in Battlestar Galactica, the planet representing Gemini is called Gemenon, which is known to be highly religious. Hmmm…maybe I am bringing balance to religious nutbags by being non-religious, and vocally so, especially now.

Hey, also, I have, in the past, gone on dates with two girls who are twins  (not at the same time, of course). And balance could be the…um…sort of…um…oh! Richmond, Virgina! Wait, what?

My head asplode.

     Your lucky numbers are 25, 3, 13, 28 and 48.

Yeah still nothing. No 3-ways or 48-ways for me this year. Although I did vomit about 28 and bashed my head against the wall 13 times while watching Expelled, just to see how it was (hint: completely wrong and blatantly offensive to me).

So, yeah, that horoscope sucked. Maybe next year the horoscope next year will be more accurate (hint: no). Anyway, stay tuned to this…um…website as I unveil Horoscope II: The Wrath of Khrap.

Ok so I just realized I haven’t posted anything in like a month and a half and was planning on coming up with some excuse or apology or something, but the truth is writing stuff is just a chore for me. Other people on their blogs and websites might promise more updates but they inevitably fail to do so and end up looking like jerks.

I know that if I promise to be more on top of posting I’ll probably break that promise too. So, I’m promising nothing. I don’t have any more plans for blog posts, and I don’t have any desire to keep posting. I may do so in the future, but there will be no regular updates or news.

Basically, I learned from designing and making my financial game that if I truly love doing something, I’ll do it without having to consider it a chore. I’ll do it for hours on end without looking up, just like I did while making my game. But maintaining this blog, and writing my stories, just seem like too much work.

So, this isn’t good-bye, just a ’see you later’. And this blog will remain up for as long as WordPress exists.

Today, I was thinking about robots like I often do, and I wondered how much an individual robot would have to be in order to be economically competitive with a human being. Basically,  such a robot is cheaper than hiring a living human, then it is more advantageous for a business to buy a robot than hire a person.

A good comparison I’ve found is comparing a robot to a car. Both are highly complex machines that perform important tasks for people. In fact, in a very real sense, comparing a robot to a human is much like comparing a car to its predecessor: the horse.

Cars have many advantages over horses: they are faster, more powerful. They are cheaper and easier to buy and maintain (yes, even with $3 a gallon gas).  Cars don’t die of starvation if you ignore them for a couple weeks. Cars shield you from the elements when traveling and come with air conditioning and handy cup holders…the list can go on and on. Horses used to be the common method of getting around, but now are something of an extravagance simply because something objectively better has come along.

Robots have many of the same advantages over humans as cars do over horses. Also, in terms of economics, let’s make a few assumptions. Let’s assume that a company that buys a robot keeps that robot and uses it for labor every day for 10 years. Cars regularly last 10 years or more. Let’s also assume that the robot works an average of eighteen hours a day, using the other six to recharge, repair, and generally undergo maintenance. If the company was employing a human, how much does that much manpower cost?

The answer is quite surprising. There are roughly 3,650 days in 10 years. Times 18 hours per day, means that a company would get 65,700 man-hours of labor out of one robot. The current minimum wage in the US is $7.25, so that many man-hours of labor costs $476,325. That’s almost half a million dollars. For one robot.

Now there are also issues like the cost to power and repair those robots, but again, how much does it cost to keep a car repaired and fueled? A few hundred dollars a month? Assume $500. For 10 years that works out to only $60,000.  Still, a $400,000 robot is economically competitive. Wow. Factoring in inflation that will likely happen over the next 25 years (at which point computer power becomes high enough due to Moore’s Law), an economically competitive robot will be in the $1 million range.

Today, you can buy one human brain’s worth of processing power for much less than that. Today’s supercomputers already are smarter than humans, at least in terms of computational power. Of course, as soon as a robot that costs $400,000 hits the market it doesn’t necessarily mean that everyone will be fired and replaced by robots. Likely, the cost will have to come down to the point where the advantage becomes very obvious.

The other day on my break between classes, I decided to get lunch at one of my favorite fast-food restaurants, Jack in the Box. Inside, to my surprise, I found an ordering kiosk all set up and ready to take orders. I’ve read of these, but hadn’t yet encountered one myself.

Of course, I had to use it. And I found it was pretty simple: just follow the instructions on screen. And my food was ready just as fast as it I had went to a person. I used my debit card but the machine could also take cash and dispense change.

This machine is just one highlight of the incoming robotic revolution. It does a job that supplants a human worker (in this case the cashier). But this particular type of machine does have its flaws. For one, the interface is through touchscreen. People are used to interacting via speech, and prefer to do it that way. For a kiosk like this to really take off, it would need to be able to understand and respond entirely through voice commands. Watching the other people in the restaurant order, all of them preferred to go up to the person behind the counter. One did try the kiosk, but decided to go with the person when the opportunity presented itself.

We are just beginning to see the widespread application of voice-command technology. It has a high computational demand, and is still seen as something of a novelty. But so did the PC, the ATM machine, and the telephone. Once people get over the initial unease, they often quickly realize the potential and embrace new technologies (much more so for younger generations). Coupled with the fact that voice-command technology will very likely get cheaper and higher quality due to Moore’s Law, by 2020 interacting with multiple machines and kiosks solely through voice probably won’t seem strange at all.

Once that happens, we’ll be one giant step closer to the robotic revolution.

Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you know that the state of California is scrambling to fix its budget problems. I live in California, and it’s easy to blame the Governor, or the state legislature for our woes, but really, I think they are simply victims and caught in the middle of what the real cause of our problems is: us.

By which I mean the voters. As an almost too perfect example, I refer you to Proposition 1A, passed last November, a ballot measure that proposed building a high-speed train between Los Angeles and San Francisco, at a cost of nearly $10 billion.

To put it bluntly, we don’t need it. But we passed it and it we now have to borrow $10 billion (because people don’t want their taxes raised) to pay for it. How do I know we don’t need it? Because it isn’t being built already by private industry.

You see, if a high-speed train were really needed, there would be demand for it. If there’s demand for it an investor, or group of investors, will see the opportunity, come in, and fund the project with their own money. That isn’t happening, thus we don’t need it (mostly because of that wonderful new invention call the automobile. And also the airplane).

But the worst part is that they are raising bonds to pay for it, rather than raising taxes. That means the state is going into more debt, and getting further away from a balanced budget. Of course, some might say that the debt will be paid off by passenger fares, but since it’s not needed, who’s going to be riding the train and paying the fare?

To me, it’s like a kid with a credit card thinking “I can buy all this stuff and not pay for it! Hurray!” It’s completely fiscally irresponsible and it’s 100% the people of California’s fault, not the government’s (well, I voted against it because of this, so it’s not my fault). And this is something that can’t be cut from the budget, since it was approved by voters. It would be illegal to remove it. The state of California now must build a high-speed train for $10 billion.

So why is it like this? Why do the people have so much power over the state’s financial affairs? Mostly it has to do with the period when California was first organized into a state, called the Progressive Era. Then, there was widespread distrust of government (much like today) and it was thought that it would be better to put a lot more power into the hands of the people instead of the government. Now, I know too much government power is a bad thing, but too much “people power” can be a very bad thing. Simply because people just don’t have the training and discipline to deal with political and fiscal issues. That’s why we vote people who are trained (ideally) into office. I mean, the voters can amend the state constitution by ballot measure. That’s what Proposition 8 was, which banned same-sex marriage. It is now not just illegal but unconstitutional for any government agency in California to recognize a same-sex marriage.

Perhaps dissolving the state government and drafting a new constitution wouldn’t be such a bad idea. 

The other day I was idly thinking about the ethics of cloned meat. From a biological perspective, it’s exactly the same stuff, it’s just made in a different way. Often, this way is much more efficient than raising animals, and there’s bonus that cloned meat was never actually part of a living animal, and so was never really “killed” to feed us. From both an ethical and practical standpoint, cloned meat seems the way to go. 

I myself love eating meat, but have always been sort of bothered by the fact that it was once an animal. I mean, I know the animal kingdom is a harsh place where animals compete and eat one another, and that we, arguably, are just competing better. So it hasn’t really stopped me from eating it.

But then I started extending the argument, as I always do, to its logical extreme. If it’s ok to clone beef, pork, chicken, etc., what about animals that we don’t normally eat due to practical or cultural values. For example, is it wrong to eat a cloned horse steak? It was never actually part of a real living horse. A horse didn’t have to die to provide you with the steak, just donate  a small sample of its DNA. Or how about cloning dog or cat or dolphin? Or, what about cloning endangered animal meat.

Or, taking it to the logical conclusion, what if we cloned human meat? Again, a cloned human steak was never part of a person. I don’t know if I’d want to eat human, but I might try just to see. You never know, it might be really good.

Even more bizarre (if you can imagine that), what if you cloned your own meat? You could have a slice of you. I don’t know. I don’t imagine that many people would want to eat human meat, but there probably is at least a small market out there. Maybe that’s one future industry that will develop.

Today I read an article about how the United States Post Office may close up to 1,000 of its offices, putting thousands of its employees out of work. It’s quite interesting that the primary cause of this is, unsurprisingly, the Internet:

The local post office long has been the center of many American communities, but with people turning increasingly to the Internet to send messages and pay bills, financial losses are forcing the Postal Service to consider consolidating or closing hundreds of local facilities. [emphasis mine]

This is directly what will happen in the next few decades for nearly every business. Automation doesn’t necessary entail humanoid robots (though that will be a large segment of it), it could be something as simple as a piece of software. The automated ordering system I suggested to my company  is just that: a piece of software that does the job of hundreds of human workers at a tiny fraction of the cost while doing a far better job than any human can possibly do.

Of course, there’s still need for postal employees currently because there still are pieces of mail which have to be hand delivered (like packages). I myself am currently expecting a couple of packages (though thinking about it, everything I am expecting is a form of digital media, and could theoretically just be streamed over the Internet. In the next ten to twenty years, physical media like CDs and DVDs will likely completely vanish and we’ll be able to stream whatever we want instantly.)

Of course, what are the employees laid off going to do? They may be able to get jobs elsewhere, eventually, but where. You see the thing that took their jobs (the Internet), doesn’t require as many people to operate. When you send an email, the delivery is handled completely autonomously. When you send a letter, a number of people have to sort it, deliver it, sort it again, etc. The only need for people when dealing with the Internet, is for maintenance, troubleshooting, and designing new sites.

And, of course, you might think, “we’ll customers prefer interacting with people than machines.” but that isn’t what we’re seeing. If it was, this wouldn’t be happening. Eventually, machines will be able to do all jobs, and do them much better than flesh-and-blood people.

Breaking news: something has impacted on the planet Jupiter.

There isn’t any confirmation of what it is was yet but my money’s on a small asteroid, probably no bigger than a mile across.

Anyway, for anyone with a telescope, this site details when the spot is visible. All times are in UT so subtract 5 hours for Eastern Time and 8 hours for Pacific. I know I’ll be looking up. It’s times like this that I’m glad I have a relatively big ’scope.